Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
